About UX Design
UX Design was already a very small subset of design. It was high paying but not because of the complexity of the trait. As a UX Desginer you work for IT firms. Money and investment is heavy, so even the HRs of an IT company is paid higher than the industry standard.
I have been in UX for 5 years and I have seen all sorts of companies - their ups and downs. UX was already a bubble in my opinion. This bubble was going to burst around 2020 but covid happened. The demand for work from home software setup, forced IT service companies to hire huge amount of employees. And this UX bubble sustained, but the only question was for how long?
The Verdict
Absolutely! AI is bound to and is replacing UX Designers. You may be in an MNC, where you are doing good amount of research before executing design for a project. But that only consist of 20% of the jobs.
Companies that dont fall into MNC category only hired UX Designers to embelish their existing product or software service. Unless you are a funded start up you will not spend your money on someone who will just make the product look good, you are more likely to copy existing software designs and call your self heavily inspired.
The ground level reality is that even within those top 20% of the companies - workforce are fighting for relevancy. Processes are modified to prove UX Designers dont just create fancy buttons - They shape human experience.
AI will reduce jobs across every field, especially UX
In general across every field AI will reduce jobs. It is good at recognizing patterns and doing things that are done a thousand times over. The technology that we call as "AI" is still artificial. It's not actually intelligent. A huge amount of data is fed into the software. And the output, AI is predicting what comes next in the series - 1 pixel or 1 word at a time. Both are referred to as token in the world of AI.
So yes it will reduce jobs, especially UX because, UX was a bubble since the start. It is very similar to how in finance people say a piece of stock has weak fundamentals. It is highest paid field in design, and yet the most easy to learn and master.
Who will suffer? Is there anything that can be done?
People who are highly specialized UX Design (5-15 years) will be the one suffering this wave. People who have stayed in 1 company, learnt only UX, mastered UX to an end, one may call it stagnation.
On the other hand people who have basic knowledge of many skills will not suffer. Because they can utilize AI and deliver projects from end to end. No client in the market is looking to just get the design done from a retainership. They always want a complete product out of their money.
Companies that are small to medium in size will suffer. For example, an IT firm with 2-5 clients. Since the work that they were delivering collectively can be now done by 1 person. But for this to happen, design professional will need to come to such a realization. Once UX Deisngers realize that they can learn multiple skills and deliver projects from end-to-end. That is when it is troubling for the agencies.
This has already happened in the past. There was a time web design was done by companies who called themselves - "Web Design Agencies". But today we see lesser agencies and more freelance web designers. The web design agencies that are doing a successful business today are the ones who are either serving very cheap quality OR they are doing a highly complex WebGL and 3D website. Which still requires additional skill of 3D modelling over traditional web design.
And to be very precise, this is going to happen again. Figma is betting their money on it. They have rolled out a piece of software where you dont just create design but also utilize AI to deliver 80% functional prototypes. I think this tech will replace front end developers very quickly.
Why do company even look for years of experience in 1 field?
When 1 person can master many skills why do company even prefer specialized roles? Simple answer, this is business.
Long answer - For a business to stay profitable it needs to cut competetion. When it comes to service business you are training your own competetion in the process of making money. An employee who did not know anything about the field before joining now understands many tips and tricks of the trade. Imagine a business training an employee making them proficient in every way. And that employee, starts their own business after 3 years of experience.
Since service business can be started by anyone with very less capital investment. The employees become your competetion. They cannot be trained enough to steal your clients. Thus comes the solution - everyone is only a master of their own trait. Designer only knows design. Developer only knows development. Front end only sees the front end.. And nobody sees the full picture.
So what exactly is going to happen?
The future is actually bright. It's perfect for people who want to work and want to build. It is only sad for people who wanted to sit on top of 10 people and yell instructions, and desire to make money off of it. I do not want to demean MBAs but in todays scenario - companies will not hire them. They will hire people who can do and these do-ers will take on the role of an MBAs, since do-ers will be the managing the AI tools. These AI tools will take the place of hard working people and do the heavy lifting.
So it's a great time to be independent designer / developer. Who take the project and utilize enhanced AI tools to finish the job. At the same time it's not that anybody can utilize these AI tools. You need to have some level of proficieny in your field and basic understanding of all the others.
Conclusion
There is a massive power shift. This power shift is happening from people who want to lead, to the people who want to work. Which is justice serving itself. I think this is the best time to be alive. So what if the skills that I am using right now can become obsolete? With this much cerebral capacity we can learn a new skill every single day.
For example, with the advancement of AI, I have started taking software projects from end to end. And after seeing my work client's prefer me, over any other independent developer. Because a client does not care which tech stack and which backend server I use. They care about the User Experience. And in that, I have proof.